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Blackjack insurance
Offered when the dealer shows an ace, named to sound protective, and wrong almost every time.
Decline it. The dealer completes a blackjack from an ace about 31 percent of the time. Insurance pays at a rate that needs it to happen more than 33 percent of the time.
That gap is the entire reason the offer exists.
The arithmetic
The dealer shows an ace. For a blackjack they need a ten-value card underneath.
Fifty-one cards are unseen, and sixteen of them are worth ten — the tens, jacks, queens and kings. That is 16 in 51, or 31.4 percent.
| Rate | |
|---|---|
| Dealer actually has blackjack | 31.4% |
| Rate needed to break even at 2 to 1 | 33.3% |
| The gap | About 2 points, permanently against you |
Two percentage points does not sound like much. Applied to every ace the dealer shows, over a long session, it is the clearest losing decision available in the game.
The name is doing a lot of work
Insurance sounds like it protects the hand you are holding. It does not.
It is a separate decision about whether the dealer has blackjack, resolved before your hand is played. Win or lose it, your own cards play out exactly as they would have. Nothing is being protected.
Even money is the same offer
When you hold a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, some tables offer "even money" — a guaranteed ordinary win instead of the 3 to 2 blackjack payout.
It is insurance with a friendlier name and the same arithmetic. Taking it trades a 1.5× return that arrives about 69 percent of the time for a 1× return that arrives always — and the trade is against you.
When it is correct
Only for a player tracking which cards have already been dealt, and only when an unusual number of ten-value cards remain in the deck. That shifts the 31.4 percent upward, and above 33.3 percent the offer flips.
In ordinary play, without tracking, that condition never arrives — so the answer is always no.
Common questions
What is insurance in Blackjack?
A side decision offered when the dealer's upcard is an ace. It pays out if the dealer turns over a ten-value card for blackjack, and loses if they do not.
Should you take insurance in Blackjack?
No. The dealer completes a blackjack less than a third of the time from an ace, while insurance pays at a rate that would need it to happen more often than that.
Why is insurance a bad bet?
Sixteen of the fifty-one unseen cards are ten-value, which is about 31 percent. Insurance pays 2 to 1, which needs the event to occur more than a third of the time to break even.
What is even money in Blackjack?
The same decision under a different name, offered when you hold a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace. Taking it is the same mistake as taking insurance.
Does insurance protect your hand?
No, and the name is misleading. It is a separate decision on whether the dealer has blackjack. Your own hand plays out exactly as it would have.
Is insurance ever correct?
Only for a player tracking which cards have already been dealt, and only when an unusual number of ten-value cards remain. In ordinary play it is never correct.
Roughly two aces in three do not turn into blackjack. A free Blackjack card game download for Android.
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References
- Blackjack on Wikipedia, the reference article on the game